Fiscal hawks like to drum up interest in the national debt by making the astronomical numbers more tangible. The United States owes $31.6 trillion to public creditors, more than $290,000 for each household. You could spend $1 million every day for almost 86,000 years before having to borrow more. But no one really cares. Talking about how many times all of the dollars laid end to end would go to the moon and back (6,000, as it happens) is just not going to get people to think differently about the national debt. What should matter is that the consequences of this debt are not off in the future, but already here. The government's deficits have saddled many American families with higher costs, largely from rising interest rates. The Budget Lab, the policy research center at Yale where I am the executive director, recently estimated that congressional-spending decisions since 2015 have raised Treasury yields by almost a full percentage point, which affects what American households pay to borrow. For someone taking out a 30-year mortgage at last year's median home price, this rise in long-term interest rates has increased their borrowing costs by about $2,500 a year, or roughly $76,000 over the life of the loan. (The Budget Lab has built a tool to help users calculate their own extra mortgage costs.)...

Who broke Britain' Someone'or something'must have. The past 18 years, enough time for a whole lost generation to be born and brought up, have yielded nothing but stagnation and mass disillusionment. In 2007, before the global financial crisis, Britain was at its postimperial zenith. Median household income had just surpassed that of Germany. A pound was worth more than $2, and London was arguably displacing New York as the center of international banking. But since then, Britain has been left behind. The country's output per person is now only just above that of Mississippi, America's poorest state'and that slight lead is only achieved thanks to London. Outside the capital, in places where tourists do not visit, living standards fall well below Mississippi's. Brits visiting the United States find that their currency has depreciated to the point where the pound today buys only about $1.35. British wages have lagged well behind those in the U.S., and also those in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark; once you account for inflation, they've barely grown at all. Within the next decade, the typical Pole will have a standard of living equal to the typical Brit, if current trends continue....

Is America heading toward a national debt crisis' As an economic adviser to President Biden and an economist active in mainly Democratic policy circles since the late 1980s, I've spent most of my career dismissing arguments that any debt-ratio level signifies a 'crisis.' I still think that's true, even as our publicly held debt has reached 100 percent of our GDP. But I also now believe that if you're not worried about this country's fiscal outlook, you're not paying enough attention. What changed' The national debt held by the public, about $31 trillion, is now the size of the U.S. economy, up from 39 percent of the economy in 2008 and 79 percent in 2019. For most of the country's history, the fact that the economy's growth rate surpassed the interest rate on the debt enabled us to keep paying our bills. But as my colleagues and I show in a policy brief for the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, the fiscal outlook today is much more challenging. We concluded that the combination of higher deficits and climbing interest rates raises the risk that borrowing will become more expensive and will push government debt levels to climb relentlessly. This is a debt spiral....

According to Americans, it is bad out there. Real bad. This month, the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest point since 1952, when the survey started. A poll of potential Republican voters found that just 43 percent rated the economy as 'excellent' or 'good' and 55 percent as 'fair' or 'poor'; for potential Democratic voters, the shares were 5 percent and 94 percent, respectively. Low-income families are nervous, and so are high-income ones. Students and retirees are dour. Rural and urban voters are dissatisfied. People are worried about the present and future. They're concerned for themselves and their neighbors. Indeed, households are feeling worse about their personal finances and the broader state of the economy than they did during the Great Inflation of the 1970s, when the cost of groceries doubled and the government was forced to ration gasoline; the Volcker shock, from 1979 to 1982, when the average interest rate on 30-year mortgages hit 18.6 percent and the country went into devastating back-to-back recessions; the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, when 200,000 firms collapsed, the unemployment rate flirted with 15 percent, and essentials such as infant formula became impossible to find; and the Great Recession, when the stock market lost half its value, the banking system teetered on the brink of implosion, and lenders foreclosed on 6 million homes....