A year ago yesterday, President Trump turned the White House lawn into a Tesla showroom to try to boost the slumping sales of his then-pal Elon Musk's electric-car company. A few months ago, Trump declared from behind the Resolute Desk that he was Boeing's 'salesman of the year,' claiming to have helped facilitate the purchase of hundreds of aircraft. And long before he entered politics, Trump slapped his name on just about anything'apartment buildings, steaks, even a dubious for-profit university'to market it to the masses. Trump will sell anything. He has now made one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency: launching a war against Iran. The conflict, which is well into its second week, has widened throughout the Middle East, sent oil prices skyrocketing, and caused tumult in the financial markets. Yet Trump has not sold the war. In many ways, he hasn't even tried. The absence of a sales strategy is all the more confounding when you consider the political stakes. The upcoming midterm elections were supposed to be about the economy. That was perhaps Trump's most effective issue in the 2024 presidential campaign, as voters grew frustrated with the stubborn inflation that permeated Joe Biden's presidency. Trump vowed to fix it, but his record over the past 15 months is inconsistent: Yes, inflation has cooled some, but last month's jobs report was brutal; the president's tariffs have created confusion and kept costs high; and the economy is starkly stratified'the rich are doing great, and everyone else is decidedly less so. Republicans have been on a losing streak in a series of elections, and poll after poll reveals a clear disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy....

The job market is weakening, inflation is still too high, and we're at serious risk of a once-in-50-years oil shock. This is almost the exact set of conditions that triggered the stagflation of the 1970s, which at the time was America's worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. At the moment, the economy is still far from that kind of doomsday scenario, but the direction of travel is disquieting. The economy's warning lights might not yet be flashing red, but they are certainly flashing yellow. The jobs report released this morning showed that the U.S. labor market lost 92,000 jobs in February, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4 percent. The numbers for the previous two months, which had suggested decent job growth, were also revised downward: January now showed fewer job gains than initially estimated and December showed overall job losses. These new numbers continue the trend of last month's revisions, which showed that the economy had added just 181,000 jobs in all of 2025, a tenth of the jobs that had been added the year prior. Taken together, the numbers suggest that 2025 appears to have had the most months with negative job growth since 2010'the midst of the Great Recession'and that 2026 is off to a similarly slow start. The Trump administration sometimes claims that weak job numbers are the by-product of deporting undocumented workers, but the native-born unemployment rate has risen by half a percentage point since Trump took office....

The eating habits of American adults have, in recent years, begun to resemble those of hobbits. Maybe you, too, have scarfed down scrambled eggs at home in the morning, only to arrive at the office and supplement them with a protein bar for second breakfast and a bag of chips for elevenses. The late-afternoon pastry and banana-bread mocha latte have proliferated'and for humans, at least, may become an existential threat to dinner. Blame the coronavirus pandemic; blame Ozempic; blame inflation. Whatever the cause, intermediary bites and sips make up a growing portion of Americans' daily consumption, especially among young people, as my colleague Ellen Cushing wrote in 2024. The shift has now become so pronounced that restaurants are adapting to it. Chains that primarily offer meals are rolling out smaller and cheaper options'solid and liquid alike'in the hope of capturing customers who just want a snack. And in the past two years, the nation's fastest-growing restaurant brands have been those specifically oriented toward that audience....

Net investment income fell to $0.48 per share in the fourth quarter, down from $0.57 in the prior quarter. The fund also reduced the valuation of certain assets, reflecting a broader repricing across parts of the private credit market. Software-linked exposures accounted for some of the most significant markdowns. Loans tied to Medallia, acquired by Thoma Bravo for $6.4bn in 2022, were written down to below 80 cents on the dollar. Other adjustments affected debt linked to Cubic Corporation, AmeriVet, Dental Care Alliance, janitorial services businesses, and defence contractors. The recalibration comes as rising interest rates and slower exit markets place pressure on highly leveraged companies across the private equity landscape. Consultancy Bain & Co estimates private equity firms are currently managing approximately $4tn of unsold assets globally. However, despite the recent quarter's challenges, a person familiar with the matter said FSK has generated a 9.1% net internal rate of return since inception. Part of the fourth-quarter performance reflected asset sales undertaken to rebalance and calibrate the portfolio....