During times of peace, the Islamic Republic of Iran is a colossal failure, a bankrupt theocracy whose top export is its nation's best minds. During times of conflict and instability, however, it has a structural advantage. It has an extraordinarily high tolerance for the suffering of its own people, a threshold no rival government can easily match. For the Islamic Republic, suffering is a point of pride, not shame. Iran's Gulf neighbors built their model on the opposite wager'that prosperity, not suffering, is the measure of a nation's worth. The trillion-dollar economies they built over many decades, Tehran can threaten to destroy with $20,000 drones. This is the vulture's advantage. When Donald Trump launched his attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, he believed the war would destroy Tehran's nuclear and missile programs, its regional proxies, and perhaps the regime itself. Nearly three months later, the most urgent question is no longer whether Trump can change Iran. It is whether...
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