'Paradoxically, though, the choice of marriage preceded by cohabitation apparently attracts some couples who are less committed than others to lifelong relationships, since these marriages end in divorce at a far higher rate than those not preceded by cohabitation.' (Margaret Brinig, From Contract to Covenant) Cohabitation before marriage provides a couple information about their ability to live happily together. That ought to make marital mistakes less likely and so lead to a lower chance of divorce. The evidence, however, goes in exactly the opposite direction.1 Brinig's explanation is that cohabitation makes divorce less likely but the sort of people who cohabit are less likely to stay married than the sort who don't, and the second effect outweighs the first. It is a possible explanation but I am not sure it is the correct one and she offers no evidence for it. I have some data of my own, although the sample size is a bit small. My first marriage was preceded by cohabitation and...
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