In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Tennessee's Seventh Congressional District by 22 points. Last night, in a special election to represent the district, the Republican Matt Van Epps won by only nine points, defeating State Representative Aftyn Behn, a Democrat. Trump celebrated the outcome on Truth Social as a 'BIG Congressional WIN,' but the margin of victory in a deep-red district is ominous for Republicans. Van Epps underperformed Trump by 13 percentage points, a sign that the party is vulnerable heading into the 2026 midterms. If Democrats could replicate that shift everywhere next year, they would gain upwards of 40 seats in the House and take back the Senate. But last night's outcome also offers Democrats a cautionary tale. An off-year special election in December is precisely the kind of low-turnout situation in which the party's highly educated base currently dominates. In such races, Democrats probably need to run up the score by even more than 13...
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