On March 10, the journalist Emanuel Fabian reported on a missile that had been launched from Iran. The warhead hit an open area outside Jerusalem, which Fabian confirmed by speaking with rescue services and reviewing footage of the explosion. He wrote a short post on The Times of Israel's live blog and moved on. Meanwhile, gamblers had wagered millions on the unfolding events of the conflict. Fabian's post became the subject of a major dispute on Polymarket, a popular prediction market where people can bet on the outcome of almost anything. The site had allowed users to guess when Iran would initiate 'a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel's soil': More than $14 million was riding on whether such an attack had happened March 10. People started reaching out asking Fabian to change his article. Some argued that Israel Defense Forces had not officially mentioned such an attack occurring on that day, and others said that the explosion he had reported was the result of a missile being...
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