Last night, Iran, the United States, and Israel agreed to a two-week cease-fire. The central element appears to be a 10-point proposal by Iran that President Trump called 'a workable basis on which to negotiate.' The New York Times published the points, which include removing all sanctions on Iran, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, and allowing Iran to charge tolls whose proceeds would be split with Oman. If these are indeed the conditions under which the war is concluded, the U.S. emerges from the conflict in worse strategic shape than it started, and Iran emerges in better condition in the long run. Although the U.S. demonstrated tactical and operational excellence throughout the conflict, it was not sufficient to provide a real victory. The Trump administration's stated aims shifted throughout the conflict. Early on, it hinted that regime change was desired. Later, this goal was dropped in favor of destroying Iran's missile capabilities and production, dismantling...
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