At the outset of 2023, energy prices were off their peaks, inflation was no longer accelerating, economic growth appeared to be holding up, and geopolitical tensions were easing. We wondered at the time whether this might signal a break from the macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions that had severely tested management teams the previous year, ushering in less challenging business conditions in the coming months. At the outset of 2024, uncertainty has, if anything, deepened. New geopolitical disruptions; ongoing shifts in the global economic order; and the advance of AI, new technology platforms, and the energy transition are just some of the trends that signal the potential onset of a new era and keep a wide range of medium- and long-term economic scenarios in play. The sentiment is more positive in the short term, with rising hopes for a 'soft landing' in many economies, but elevated inflation and interest rates, frustrated consumers, constrained labor markets, and domestic...
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